Guess Again, Sherlock: Deductive Reasoning - an Elementary Guide
Stephen Pape
Synopsis "Guess Again, Sherlock: Deductive Reasoning - an Elementary Guide"
If you're already a respected professional or business manager, and steward of millions (perhaps tens or hundreds of millions!) of other people's piastres, not to mention the livelihood of many, many employees, and you're unable to think and reason logically, then you have no business taking the money they pay you. Sorry. This book will help you deserve the salary you get, and get the salary you deserve.In general, management is big on decisiveness, but rather average at reasoning. If you're climbing the ladder of responsibility, among your colleagues you'll find some good thinkers and, without putting it too mildly, some idiots. They may have buckets of experience in operations or sales or finance, but that gives them no exemption from the deficiencies of reasoning we're all susceptible to. Whisper it: some of the idiots are already treading the soft carpets in the C-suite's lofty aerie. Most disappointing of all are the managers who believe their status itself confers special powers of insight and understanding. If that were so, every organisation would be like an academy; mistakes would be unknown; all decisions would be tip-top; every venture would be a triumph; and every day at work would be like frolicking in the sun-dappled uplands of enlightenment. Alas, most managers use their instinct to make decisions and rationalise their choices afterwards. More often than not, they want to appear decisive, rather than reach a true or valid conclusion.If you bother to understand deductive reasoning you will be a smarter person and a better manager. Moreover, you'll stand out from the herd. Your ability to see through the fog of bogus reasoning and half-baked thinking will ensure your opinion is sought and valued. Let others accumulate years of experience learning from their mistakes. Your reasoning skills will let you walk into problems and cut through the competing claims of different opinions. And, best of all, you're going to be right.
