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portada predictive behavior
Type
Physical Book
Author
Publisher
Year
1993
Language
English
Pages
227
Format
Paperback
Dimensions
23.4 x 15.6 x 1.3 cm
Weight
0.34 kg.
ISBN
3540573119
ISBN13
9783540573111
Categories

predictive behavior

Gunnar Brennscheidt (Author) · Springer · Paperback

predictive behavior - Brennscheidt, Gunnar

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Synopsis "predictive behavior"

This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels, underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc., are studied.

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